Publications & Analysis

Emerging Insights

Working papers, policy briefs, and opinions on the economics and geopolitics of emerging and frontier markets.

OpinionGeoeconomics

Opinion: How Oil Went from Kazakhstan's Greatest Asset to Biggest Liability

For three decades, oil was the engine of Kazakhstan's post-Soviet prosperity, lifting it to middle-income status and turning it into a darling of frontier market investors. Today, that same oil is the source of a profound national crisis.

December 1, 2025Read →
Working Paper|Macroeconomic Policy

Sovereign Growth Models at a Crossroads: Navigating a New Global Economic Landscape

For decades, a set of archetypal national growth models provided a conventional playbook for economic development. However, a confluence of structural shifts in the global economy is placing these once-reliable models under unprecedented strain.

November 17, 2025
Policy Brief|Economic Development

A Pragmatic Policy Toolkit for Startup Ecosystems in Emerging Markets

Emerging market governments are in a global race to build the next Silicon Valley, often launching ambitious, top-down initiatives that consume vast resources with little to show for it.

November 10, 2025
Tracker Update|Macroeconomic Policy

Yuan Adoption Tracker Update: Q3 2025

Tracking Renminbi Internationalization Amid Global Economic Realignment. The third quarter of 2025 has been a period of significant and complex developments in the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi (RMB).

November 2, 2025
Opinion|Macroeconomic Policy

Opinion: A Real Scarcity Trade is Underneath this EM Bounce

The emerging-markets rally is not just about cycling into cheap valuations. Structural shortages in labor and commodities could turn the developing world into the next long-duration growth story.

October 25, 2025
Working Paper|Competition & Innovation

Resisting the Allure of "Artificial": A Strategic Framework for Sovereign Technology in Emerging Economies

Emerging and frontier markets are at a critical juncture, facing immense pressure to adopt and develop sovereign technologies, particularly in the realms of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and national artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities.

October 19, 2025
Working Paper|Economic Development

Barriers to the Flow of Human Capital Will Present the Next Next Generation of Trade Disruption

While the last several decades of trade negotiations have focused on the movement of goods and capital, the next phase of structural change will increasingly be defined by the cross-border flow of human capital.

September 14, 2025
Opinion|Economic Development

The "Next China" Mirage: Indian Industrialization Won\'t Rescue EM Exporters

For two decades, a plurality of small economies have built their position in the global supply chain around China's role as the world's factory floor. That model is now under pressure.

August 30, 2025
Tracker Update|Macroeconomic Policy

Yuan Adoption Tracker Update: Q2 2025

Tracking Renminbi Internationalization Amid Global Economic Realignment. The second quarter of 2025 has seen continued evolution in the renminbi's international role.

June 29, 2025
Working Paper|Geoeconomics

Navigating the Commodity Super-Cycle Shift from China to India

For two decades, China's investment-led growth model was the primary driver of commodity demand. That era is ending, and the implications for emerging market exporters are profound.

May 17, 2025
Opinion|Macroeconomic Policy

The Price of Paralysis: Markets Are Mispricing Political Gridlock

Investors have historically rewarded divided government and political stability. But the nature of gridlock has changed, and markets have not adjusted their pricing models accordingly.

May 4, 2025
Working Paper|Macroeconomic Policy

The Renminbi Rises: A Pragmatic Pivot, Not a Geopolitical Putsch

Beijing's campaign to internationalize the renminbi is often framed as a geopolitical challenge to dollar hegemony. The reality is more pragmatic and more consequential.

April 20, 2025
Tracker Update|Macroeconomic Policy

Yuan Adoption Tracker Update: Q1 2025

Tracking Renminbi Internationalization Amid Global Trade Realignment. The first quarter of 2025 was a period of significant turbulence and realignment in global currency markets.

April 6, 2025
Policy Brief|Macroeconomic Policy

State-owned currency printers create financial intel risks

Outsourced currency printing creates economic security vulnerabilities in emerging economies. State-owned currency printing operations introduce a range of financial integrity and governance risks.

March 2, 2025
Working Paper|Geoeconomics

From Hub-and-Spoke to Integrated Production: The Emerging Asian Defense Ecosystem Looks More Like the EEC than NATO

Washington's strategic community has spent the past several years debating the future of the Indo-Pacific security architecture. Less attention has been paid to the parallel transformation underway in Asian defense industrial capacity.

February 17, 2025
Working Paper|Macroeconomic Policy

Does Financial Openness Pay for Emerging Markets? New Research Finds No

For more than three decades, the Washington Consensus has promoted capital account liberalization as a cornerstone of development policy. New research finds that the relationship between financial openness and growth is more contingent than the standard model suggests.

February 13, 2025
Working Paper|Geoeconomics

Securitizing the State: Development, Diplomacy, and Decline in Middle Eastern Military Economies

Across the Middle East, a critical and often misunderstood transformation is underway. The securitization of economic policy is reshaping the region's growth trajectory.

January 26, 2025
Opinion|Macroeconomic Policy

FCPA Meets FOREX: Anti-Corruption Law and Foreign Exchange Dysfunction Don't Mix

The intersection of anti-corruption enforcement and foreign exchange dysfunction creates a set of perverse incentives that neither legal framework was designed to address.

November 22, 2024
Opinion|Macroeconomic Policy

Dollar-driven pain drives renminbi internationalization

Rising yuan adoption during sanctions surges and US dollar strength reflects a hunt for economic survival rather than ideological alignment.

May 6, 2024
Opinion|Geoeconomics

Profit comes with complex costs for multinationals operating in wartime Russia

As the war in Ukraine persists, western multinational companies operating in Russia face an increasingly complex set of decisions.

April 28, 2024
Analysis|Macroeconomic Policy

Macroeconomic divergence accelerates, complicating global policymaking

The global economy is exhibiting increasing signs of divergence, with the United States maintaining strong growth while other major economies struggle.

February 18, 2024
Analysis|Geoeconomics

Economic policy is increasingly being used for conflict between EMs

Economics and defense policy is an odd intersection. Pure-play economics people tend to dismiss defense considerations as peripheral to their models, while security analysts often treat economic instruments as blunt tools. The reality is that economic coercion has become a primary instrument of statecraft.

February 12, 2024
Analysis|Macroeconomic Policy

Emerging market macroeconomic risks change natural gas market structure

Natural gas markets are shifting from short-term spot market trading toward long-term supply agreements as emerging market buyers seek price stability and supply security.

February 12, 2024
Analysis|Macroeconomic Policy

Russia sees strong growth, but unorthodox policies come at a cost

Russia's economy has posted surprisingly strong growth figures, driven by military spending, import substitution, and redirected trade flows. The sustainability of this model warrants scrutiny.

February 6, 2024

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CEE publishes working papers, policy briefs, and analytical notes on the economics of emerging and frontier markets. All publications are freely available.

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